Author: Grant Jones
This season I’ve developed an artificially intelligent algorithm based off the past two years of KCL data to output a live in-game forecast of the current game after each batter or advanced base dependent on the inning, runs, hits, errors, outs, and if there are runners on base and which base the runners are on. The algorithm also accounts for how well the team has performed in the season thus far and has a method to predict the winner of the homerun derby in the event of a tie after seven innings. The algorithm has been updated this week to account for the starting pitchers of each team. After 6 KCL games this weekend, the Most Dominant Game of the Weekend, the Biggest Nail Biter of the Weekend, and the Biggest Comeback of the Weekend were selected based off the algorithm.
Most Dominant Game of the Weekend
The Bluecaps earned the Most Dominant Game of the Weekend, defeating the Bobcats 10-5 on Sunday June 25th. The Bluecaps quickly scored four runs in the first inning, boosting their win probability to 89%. The Bluecaps scored another five runs in the second inning, giving them a 99.9% chance to win, which barely dropped the rest of the game.
Biggest Nail Biter of the Weekend
The Ground Sloths and Bobcats competed in the Biggest Nail Biter of the Weekend on Friday June 23rd. After a scoreless first and second inning, the Ground Sloths went on a 6-1 run, putting them at a 99.9% chance to win at the end of the 5th. With the score now 6-4, Brady Alexander tied the game with a single. This jumped the Bobcats’ win probability from 18.4% to 45.7%. The game went into a tiebreaker homerun derby, giving the Bobcats a 67% chance to win; however, the Ground Sloths were victorious.
The Biggest Comeback of the Weekend
The Bluecaps had the Biggest Comeback of the Weekend with their game on Friday June 23rd against the Merchants. The Merchants jumped to a 3-0 lead after the top of the 5th, giving them an 86.5% chance to win the game. The Bluecaps answered by scoring four runs in the bottom of the 5th, putting them at a 66.6% chance to win. The Merchants rallied in the top of the sixth to take the lead by two runs, courtesy of Bryce Bishop’s single, increasing the Merchants’ win probability by 21.9% to 87.6%. With the Bluecaps against the ropes, Luke Smock puts them on top with a three-run homerun, boosting the Bluecaps win probability from 18.3% to 59.7%. The Bluecaps were able to close out the game and get the win.