Prospect League Division Win Probability Second Half Recap

Author: Jared Weber

Now that the regular season playoff hunt has officially ended, we can survey the second half division race and it’s 4 winners with the newly revised division win probability metric. Although the playoff push wasn’t nearly as interesting this time around, there are still a few interesting insights to be made.

Prairie Land: Thrillville Thrillbillies 

In spite of having a significantly greater amount of competition, the Thrillbillies managed to boost possibly the most impressive DWP odds this half. In a 3-team completely neutral race, each team would have a 33.3% chance to win. When that race turns into 4 teams, the odds drop down to 25%, an 8.3% difference! Thrillville rose above those odds at an insane pace and easily locked up the second half crown. 

Great River: Quincy Gems 

For a good chunk of the season, the Great River Division seemed like it was the only division that was still competitive after the first half. But in the end, Quincy’s streak of wins right after the mid-way point made the difference in them winning the second half. 

Wabash River: Springfield Lucky Horseshoes 

Springfield indeed happened to be the lucky benefactors of the Prospect League’s playoff format. Even though they had a good amount of first-half struggles, being able to erase their past ineptitudes ended up making the difference in them securing the second half division crown. 

It is also notable that Springfield had 3 games that were unable to be rescheduled this half. If those games were played at the end of the season, DWP would say there was still a 1% chance that Springfield could lose its title as of August 2nd.

Ohio River Valley: Champion City Kings 

The Kings truly had an impressive turnaround in the second half of the season. Johnston did put up a decent fight towards the midway point, but Champion City was still able to remain the favorite throughout the entire second half.